In January, cinephiles turn up their noses at drivel traditionally offered by studios and begin girding their loins for awards season. And though the Writers Guild of America strike has put a damper on much of the pageantry this year, it cannot stifle Hollywood’s excitement at the prospect of little gold statues that separate the haves from the have-nots.
Of course, the biggest, shiniest and all-around best award of all is the Oscar, but in the months leading up the main course, there are all sorts of fun little appetizers to sate our desire for cinematic honors.
Industry pundits and dedicated film bloggers like to look to these awards as a prediction of how the Academy will vote, but like the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, they often muddy the issue more than elucidate it. The Guild awards — Screen Actors Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards and especially Producers Guild Awards — are useful in their own fields, but the Academy is often fickle and unpredictable and can shy away from the front runners with previous award nods.
The earliest of the seasonal awards are the Critics Choice Awards, almost all of which have already been given out. These are notoriously unreliable for predicting the eventual Oscar winner, especially for Best Picture. They tend to favor smaller pictures and serious dramas and are generally not swayed by star power or studios’ campaigning. Also, the early winner tends to suffer the same burden as a political frontrunner: It’s too difficult to keep the momentum going.
The Coen Brothers’ No Country for Old Men starring Tommy Lee Jones and Josh Brolin is the consensus pick for critics this year. The tale of violence, murder and the struggle for justice in 1980s West Texas has taken nearly every major award, including the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle Award, which was once the only award to rival the Oscar in prestige.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood is No Country’s only rival, having taken the Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award. There Will Be Blood, the tragic saga of an oil prospector caught up in the greed of the business, is still not in wide release and is so strange and dark that it is likely to alienate many Academy voters.
Given how rarely the critics agree with the Academy, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood would seem almost to be disqualified from the start. But this is a very murky year for awards. Not only is there no clear front-runner, but there are hardly any films that seem like contenders. The Great Debaters earned some good press for its story about overcoming diversity, but did not recieve too much attention.
Eastern Promises, the story of a London crime family and the Frank Lucas biopic American Gangster starring Academy Award winner Denzel Washington, seem largely to have been forgotten as well as Michael Clayton, the story of lawyer-turned-investigator and whistle blower played by George Clooney, and the stories of lies and repentance during World War II in Atonement with Keira Knightley. Perhaps this is the year for the quirky, indie teen pregnancy comedy Juno.
This Sunday we may see these issues cleared up a bit at the Golden Globe Awards. The WGA strike has forced the Hollywood Foreign Press, which puts on the event, to abandon its traditional gala format in favor of essentially a brief press conference, but the winner will still carry some momentum into the Oscar voting, which begins Jan. 30.
The Golden Globes are traditionally the best indicator of Academy Award winners, though their reliability has trailed off in the last five years, predicting only one of the last five Best Picture winners. The Globes also divide the top awards between comedy and drama. The Academy tends to favor drama, but not exclusively.
So amidst this chaos, I suppose my predictions are as good as anybody’s. And I will dispense my predictions thusly:

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical):
Maybe this is more hope than belief, but I say Ellen Page for Juno. The precocious up-and-comer has done a lot, mostly under the radar, in only a short time in the biz, but she’s made it count. Her portrayal of a pregnant teenager determined to find the perfect adoptive parents to give her child to is neither flippant nor overly dramatic. Page’s Juno recognizes the gravity of her situation while still finding humor in it. Along her way she finds warmth and even love. The HFPA is much more likely to reward one so young than the Academy.

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical):
Tom Hanks for Charlie Wilson’s War. Who doesn’t love Tom Hanks? He’s America’s big brother, an offscreen role that has never been more apparent onscreen in War. His portrayal of a boozing horndog Texan congressman turned war financier and later humanitarian is both humorous and sympathetic.
Charlie Wilson was a small time politician who achieved big time things. Despite competition from Johnny Depp as the murderous title character in Sweeny Todd, I still say never bet against the two-time Oscar winner, especially in a movie that manages to demonize both communism and the United States.

Best Actress (Drama):
Julie Christie for Away From Her. Though few saw her performance in this heartfelt character drama, those who did were enthralled. Christie plays an Alzheimer’s patient who forgets her husband. While it doesn’t have the overblown dramatic romance of The Notebook, it’s a truly heart-wrenching story that the HFPA is sure to adore. Her acting and the story are moving simply because they’re real. Under the skilled young hand of first time director Sarah Polley, Christie’s quiet performance is given the chance it deserves.

Best Actor (Drama):
Though most critics are raving over Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood, I go with George Clooney for Michael Clayton. Putting less than great films like Ocean’s 12 and The Good German behind him, Clooney gives audiences a chance to remember that People’s Sexiest Man Alive is also a very talented actor.
There are few stars that charm Hollywood quite like Clooney, and Michael Clayton may be his best acting turn to date.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical):
Juno. Director Jason Reitman, who also directed the sly Thank You For Smoking, is due for a little recognition, and this is the charming little piece to do it. Juno is a surprisingly accessible film, a relief from the Ferrell/McKay/Apatow frat-boy humor that has dominated the box office lately. It’s laugh out loud funny and it has genuine heart.
It also manages to tackle the tricky subject of teen pregnancy without forcing a moral on its audience. And Juno’s increasing financial success is making it this year’s little movie that could.

Best Picture (Drama):
Probably the most open race by far, as evidenced by the seven nominees as opposed to the traditional five. Despite the frontrunner burden, I still pick No Country for Old Men.
The story blends heroin, large sums of money, blood, betrayal and the Rio Grande into the best Western — maybe the only Western — Hollywood has seen in years. Besides actually being the best film of the year, it’s got the star power of powerful actors Tommy Lee Jones and Spain’s Javier Bardem, and the Coen brothers have the credibility (with films like O Brother, Where Art Thou? and The Big Lebowski on their resumes) to carry their gory neo-Western to the top.