Georgetown University’s Newspaper of Record since 1920

The Hoya

Georgetown University’s Newspaper of Record since 1920

The Hoya

Georgetown University’s Newspaper of Record since 1920

The Hoya

Dissecting the Election

It has been one week since the mid-term elections. In that time, pundits and analysts have attributed the significant Democratic losses in Congress to anti-incumbent sentiment, voter dissatisfaction with the economy, the polarized health care reform debate and federal government overreach. President Obama referred to the results as a “shellacking.” Republicans and their conservative allies see this moment as a referendum on the administration. Whatever narrative one prefers, there are several under-reported themes in this election that will continue to have ramifications on our political system.

House Misdiagnosis

The Republican Party undoubtedly scored a historic victory in regaining the House of Representatives four years after losing it. The GOP now enjoys its biggest majority since 1946. But more context is necessary. Democrats regained the House in 2006 and grew their majority in 2008 with the strategy (a product of then-Rep. Rahm Emanuel) of deliberately running conservative Democratic candidates in Republican territory. Against the backdrop of Hurricane Katrina, two wars and ethics scandals, the Democrats performed very well. Thus it makes sense that four years later when the structural dynamics of the midterm election favor Republicans, the voters – largely suburban and middle class – would turn against the Democrats. There was never any question that the Democrats would lose seats in 2010. It has been a consistent trend in American politics that the party of an incumbent president does poorly during midterm elections. The question was, How many seats would the Republicans pick up?

Latino Republicans Ascendant

Latino Republicans (not an oxymoron) performed exceptionally well last week. Five Latino Republican candidates for the House, including a woman, will join three other representatives in January. Senator-elect Marco Rubio from Florida will bring the record total number of Hispanic Republicans in Congress to nine. Also of note, Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval were elected to the governorships of New Mexico and Nevada, respectively. This does not mean, however, that the GOP has earned the full trust and support of the Latino community. Rather, Republicans have a serious challenge in repairing their relationship with Latinos, especially over the issue of immigration reform. These new elected voices in the party hopefully will lead to more sensible rhetoric and equitable policymaking. Latinos are a growing political and economic force in this country. The Republicans must accept and embrace this.

The Year of the Republican Woman

Apart from Hispanics, the GOP also presented strong female candidates across the country. There were high-profile losses (Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina in California, Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell), but overall, a new class of Republican women will be assuming office soon. Fifteen incumbents won re-election to the House; eight challengers defeated House Democrats seeking re-election. In the Senate, Kelly Ayotte will represent New Hampshire. There are also three new female GOP governors: Martinez, Nikki Haley in South Carolina and Mary Fallin in Oklahoma. Since women have recently been turning out to vote more than men, winning a substantial amount of this demographic ensures success. This is something Republicans did well this year by capitalizing on the anxiety over the state of the economy and Obama’s 23-point drop in support among women since his election.

The State-Level: An Untold Story

If there truly was a Republican resurgence, then the states – not Congress – were at the center of it. The GOP now has 30 governorships including several key states in the Midwest (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio). Governors are crucial in GOP politics. They are a natural pool of presidential and vice presidential candidates because of their executive experience. Gubernatorial endorsements will also be important when the 2012 campaign begins because governors can organize and mobilize their state parties, donor base and volunteers. But the GOP’s gains go beyond the governors’ mansions. Republicans gained more than 600 seats across state legislatures, flipped control of 19 state legislative chambers and now hold the majority in 55 state legislatures nationwide. This will be a significant advantage during the redistricting process after the new U.S. Census results are released. Of the 18 states that will lose or gain seats, the GOP is in the majority in 10 of them.

Moving forward, the Republicans must now effectively use their majority status in the House of Representatives and their significant gains across the states as a healthy check on the Obama presidency. Just as easily as voters brought them back to power, they can vote them out of power. Presumptive Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) must learn to manage the Tea Party movement for the overall survival of the Republican Party. Obstruction will not work; cooperation and compromise will. The American people have spoken. It is time to deliver.

Carlos Reyes is a senior in the School of Foreign Service and the community member of the board of directors of THE HOYA.

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